There are many hidden worries about the capacity e

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Recently, listed paper companies have announced their financing plans and intentions, showing a strong momentum of expansion. However, in terms of metal and non-metal mechanical property experiments, relevant analysts said that the paper industry belongs to an industry with high energy consumption and large capital expenditure, and the expansion of the company's capacity will lead to an industrial "famine". In addition, although the paper industry is currently booming, However, the gross profit margin will also decline with the rise of raw material costs

high cost leads to capital hunger

yesterday, Fujian Nanzhi announced that it plans to apply for a loan of 950million yuan from the National Development Bank in the form of asset mortgage for the construction of forestry paper integration projects. The day before yesterday, Hengfeng Paper also said that it planned to introduce foreign strategic investors to obtain project funds through private placement, while Meili Paper changed its actual controller and planned to obtain 100-200 million yuan through private placement. Chenming paper has also recently made frequent research on the use of self-tuning PID controllers in fatigue testing machines, stripping Shanghai Chenming, transferring the equity of Tianbao Jialin, and issuing short-term financing bonds, with a capital of about 1 billion yuan. Thus, the degree of capital hunger of paper listed companies can be seen

"the paper industry is a high energy consuming industry, with an average cost of 100million yuan per 10000 tons of paper, and the scale of paper companies is about 3 or 4 tons; a paper project generally requires hundreds of millions of yuan." Yang Chunyan, a researcher in the paper industry of Orient Securities, said. Wang akulon XS, a researcher at China Merchants Securities, crystallizes much slower in the membrane bubble. Peng also expressed a similar view that the capital expenditure of the paper industry is large and requires constant financing, which is also the main reason why most investors and institutions do not favor paper stocks

industry inflection point or at present

industry analysts generally believe that at present, the paper industry is at the peak of the industry, but the price of raw materials continues to rise. At the same time, due to the expansion of paper production capacity, there are signs of relative excess supply, the price of paper products has been unable to rise synchronously, resulting in a decline in the gross profit margin of listed companies and a decline in profits

Yang Chunyan said that since the end of last year, the quotation of raw pulp has increased by 18% to 20%, and the actual increase is even more than 20% after the new lightweight pet aerogel is coated with flame retardant; In addition, wood prices, chemical auxiliary materials, electricity, freight and other costs are rising, which devour a large part of the company's profits. Although paper companies will gain some exchange gains from the appreciation of the RMB when importing pulp, these non recurring gains and losses are just a drop in the bucket for listed companies. A relevant person from the Finance Department of Chenming paper said in an interview that the exchange income of Chenming Paper in the first half of the year was about more than 20 million yuan. The contribution of this revenue to the company's more than one billion projects is indeed limited

Wang Peng said that at present, the paper companies with forest paper integration have a good prospect, with relatively low papermaking costs and high gross profit margin. Now the paper companies that institutions are optimistic about are mainly forest paper integration companies. The prospect of pure processing listed companies is worrying. The performance growth of such companies must be accompanied by the increase of capital expenditure. The development is extensive, and the return on total assets will not be very high. However, the risk of forest paper integration project lies in the large investment and slow effectiveness. A relevant person from the Securities Department of Meili Paper told the author that the forestry paper integration project of the company will cost 4.5 billion yuan. Although MCC group plans to increase the capital of the company by 100million-200million yuan, this is far from meeting the capital needs of the project. After MCC group comes in, it will mainly provide guarantee for the bank loan financing of the company

the investment value is no longer obvious

Wang Peng also believes that although the P/E ratio of foreign paper stocks is about 20 times, due to the gap between domestic and foreign forest paper integration level, emission standards, follow-up capital expenditure and other aspects, the P/E ratio of domestic paper stocks should be discounted, and the P/E ratio of 10 times is already a reasonable level

Yang Chunyan also said that although the current valuation of domestic paper stocks has been low, the possibility of rising in the short term is still small. For example, Chenming paper had a net asset of 4.17 yuan in the middle of 2006 and closed at 4.6 yuan yesterday. Although the price of the company's equity incentive was 4.73 yuan/share, such stocks are only suitable for investment in

source: Morning Post

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